With jobless claims hitting the lowest levels in almost 50 years today and the ADP report coming in light and below estimates we would not be surprised if the employment report tomorrow also came in light and below estimates.
Historically this has often been the case with the April employment report. As you can see in the table here, the major market benchmarks have not performed well on April jobs day, reflecting disappointment in April’s non-farm payroll numbers.
With the persistently super low unemployment rate and recent reports that there are more jobs than unemployed this suggests to us businesses are having a hard time finding skilled workers. We don’t think this indicates companies are being cautious due to a struggling economy, rather an economy in need of skilled workers. This could lead to more wage increases.
Part of the problem is that there are not enough skilled workers to fill the jobs that are available. Seems like an education gap. In light of the recent college admissions scandal, perhaps we should be focusing on what kinds of education folks need for the jobs that are out there instead of getting into a big name school. In the words of the controversial figure Malcom X, “Education is the passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to those who prepare for it today.”