In response to yesterday’s post, today we present a chart of NASDAQ’s second half of the year seasonal patterns.
Today’s chart uses the same four scenarios presented yesterday and in other posts; Post-Election Year, the Seventh Year of the Decade, the First year of a new Republican Administration and a Positive January Trifecta. Please keep in mind that NASDAQ’s patterns are using data from 1971 to present and two of the scenarios have very limited data. New Elected Republican Administrations are just three years, 1981, 1989 and 2001. The pattern’s near 15% plunge from July 1 to late September is due mainly to 2001. Seventh Year of Decades is also limited to just four years, 1977, 1987, 1997 and 2007. Here 1987 creates the near 13% plunge from early October to late October.
Compared to the patterns of DJIA and S&P 500, NASDAQ is quite similar only the magnitude of its moves are greater. All four patterns finish out the second half of the year in a range from slightly less than down 5% to up a little better than 6%. Prior to today, 2017 was in the upper ranges of these four patterns. The sizable range in these patterns best suggests some volatile trading could persist throughout the remainder of the third quarter and into the early fourth quarter.