Before the Coronavirus catalyst, there had been a great deal of debate about the yield curve and its ability to predict recession.
“In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,981,000, a decrease of 195,000 from the previous week’s revised level.”
Since that call, the Dow is up 15%+, the S&P 500 is up 18%, and the NASDAQ is up a scorching 29%.
To the chagrin of the bubble chasers, history is categorical in this regard, the combination of a parabolic price move, a hype narrative, and the proliferation of wild price projections, is highly indicative of a topping bubble and an impending price collapse.
Are bear market rallies peaking in Europe? Very possible!
The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for May, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.802 billion barrels.
The secular nature of the stock market is well documented.
The precious metals sector could currently be trading within a bullish consolidation.
As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken.
Get ready to pay much more for groceries.
The Coronavirus event seems to be magnifying some of those weaknesses as well as creating a whole set of new problems related to the shutting down of the economy, the depression-like unemployment and the trillions of dollars we are going to throw at this problem.
The rallies have faded, but by holding on to monster gains posted earlier this year the long Treasuries segment remains far ahead of the rest of US bond market so far this year, based on a set of exchange traded funds through Tuesday’s close (May 12).
There’s a lot happening for Musk.
Is the saying “So Goes The Banks, So Goes The Broad Market” true? Over the past 28-months, it does appear to be accurate!
The latest monthly employment report showed a loss of 20.5M nonfarm payrolls, which consists of a loss of 18.1M service-providing jobs and a loss of 2.4M goods-producing jobs.
No other nation has endured as much death from Covid-19 nor nearly as a high a death rate as has the United States.
However, there are a few ETFs that focus on the travel and leisure industry, which you may still want to avoid, at least for the time being and until we see how consumers ease back into their “new normal” lifestyles.
Market action remained somewhat low key with only the Nasdaq trading any action of note.
We’re all desperate for a quick economic recovery, but desperation can be the enemy of informed thinking for looking ahead.
The question of the day – at least in the popular financial press – appears to be, why are stocks rallying with the economy in free fall?
Trading around May option expiration is mostly a mixed bag.
While many stock indices are well below highs from earlier this year, one index is attempting a breakout from a 30-month trading range!
“There is currently a ‘Great Divide’ happening between the near ‘depressionary’ economy versus a surging bull market in equities. Given the relationship between the two, they both can’t be right.”
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning.
The employment report on Friday was (expectedly) horrifying.