November Could Bring Some Consolidation

Now that we’ve survived Octoberphobia and the market has begun to strengthen again, breaking out above resistance and logging new highs on DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we are likely to experience a bit of consolidation here in November.


By Jeffrey Hirsch

Normally the top S&P(NYSEARCA:SPY) month of the year and #2 for DJIA,(NYSEARCA:DIA) NASDAQ (NYSEARCA:QQQ)and the Russell 2000(NYSEARCA:IWM), November has been weaker in Pre-Election Years.

As you can see in the updated chart of Pre-Election Year Seasonal Patterns overlaid with 2019 we have been tracking all year November tends to be flat in the Pre-Election Year with a pop around Thanksgiving. Then after the usual first half of December softness the market tends to push toward additional new highs near yearend. Considering the banner performance so far this year and the uncanny tracking of this historical seasonal pattern, we expect the stock to consolidate over the next few weeks and then resume its march higher.