Consolidation for S&P Ends with Monday’s Gain

The S&P rally from December lows had consolidated through February but today’s gain put an end to that consolidation.



By Dr. Declan Fallon


The breakout came with a ‘buy’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume. Relative performance against Small Caps took a tick higher; a mixed signal, rally is defensive until proven otherwise.

The Nasdaq (NYSEARCA:QQQ) was caught in a little middle ground with a rally which just fell short of a new high. The MACD trigger ‘sell’ is still in effect but is a day’s gain from reversing. The index still outperforms the S&P(NYSEARCA:SPY) but is hugging close to the line.

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While the S&P is leading, the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) has managed to break from its consolidation. Be ready for a MACD trigger ‘buy’ above the bullish zero line.  Not surprisingly, relative performance has been in the dumpster but this breakout may be the required kickstarter for a broader market rally.

I like what I saw today. The question is whether indices can build on this. The Russell 2000 will have short positions to negate but these look done for the S&P and Nasdaq; new shorts may try to attack a possible double top off today’s close but technicals don’t really support this.