How Different Approaches Lead to Different Conclusions
My purpose is to show how different approaches – all sound methods – often lead to different conclusions.
Fans of the Odd Couple know about Felix and Oscar’s regular poker game. While Holmes is a dog, everyone knows that they play poker as well. They have all agreed to take a few minutes away each week to talk with us about stocks. Here is the cast of characters:
Felix is fussy, precise, and very cautious. He looks for what is working, but it also must have upside potential. He is an investor who thinks long term. Felix will not make any picks, but he will answer questions, saying what he thinks about specific stocks.
Oscar is naturally optimistic and a bit excitable. He definitely likes to go with winners, and focuses on a one-month time frame. He trades either sector ETFs, or a basket of stocks (equally weighted) that reflect a sector. Oscar will mention a favorite sector each week, and will also answer questions about sectors.
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Holmes is a trader, but a cautious one. Holmes emphasizes asset protection through profit taking, stops, and trailing stops. He is careful in selecting new positions, and generally looks at an intermediate time frame. There is no set holding period, but two or three months is not unusual. Holmes will tell us one stock recommended that week. For those who sign up for his email list (no charge, privacy respected, holmes at newarc dot com) he will report exits with a one-day delay.
To provide occasional representation for those of the fundamental persuasion, I will sometimes include a human in the discussion.
This Week’s Ideas
My purpose is to show how different approaches – all sound methods – often lead to different conclusions. Technical versus fundamental, trader versus investor, short-term versus long-term — all make a difference. I hope you will find the weekly discussion interesting and become a part of it.
I see good value in precious metals. What to buy? Gold or silver? Metals or mining? Royal Gold (RGLD) is an attractive choice.
Question: Felix, what is your opinion of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
Felix: Too messy! It is barely acceptable.
Jeff: Earnings and cash will eventually lead the stock price higher.
“Felix may be in it for the long haul, but there are plenty of ways to cash in faster! There is a football game tonight, for example. But you want to know about stock sectors. My pick of the week is Regional Banks (KRE). They started with an early slump in January but now there is a hot streak – just check the 50-day moving average! I don’t want a floor for my portfolio; I want to blow the roof off!”
I do not talk as much as Felix and Oscar, but my stock picks are ahead of the humans. This record market has my tail wagging! Here is one I bought this week: Cardinal Health (CAH).
An Important Note to Readers
Felix, Oscar, and Holmes are all models, carefully engineered and tested by one of the leading developers of the last thirty years. They are highly-modified momentum models, with different time frames and features.
I humanize them because it makes it easier to understand the characteristics in their design. I always remind readers that my posts are informational, not investment advice, but special emphasis is needed here. While we are trading based upon all three models, we are always watching and can act quickly when necessary. The models are not suitable for all investors.
The conversation is light-hearted, but the stock analysis is serious. We own positions in each of the stocks mentioned (individual banks rather than KRE).
Questions are welcome about both stocks and sectors. I will pass them along.