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Draghi’s Impact on the Markets

Over in the Euro Zone, we’ll what Mr. Draghi intends to do to keep their economy and markets stable.

 

By Jack Steiman

It’s really no fun anymore. Markets used to be free before the world central banks decided they would become the stock markets around the globe. We could trade on technicals as well as fundamentals. Now we trade on deciding what someone might or might not say. It makes a person sick, really. There’s no freedom in just about anything anymore. Everything is under someone else’s control. This evening, over in the Euro Zone, we’ll what Mr. Draghi intends to do to keep their economy and markets stable. Last week he promised to do whatever it takes to keep their economy in good shape, with the likelihood of more stimulus to be announced. Well, this evening is the time for him to keep true to his word. Or not. Who knows what words will flow from those interfering lips. If he wants happy-time he needs to say all the right stimulating words.

If he’s nothing but hot air, then he’ll somehow not deliver, something he has done in the past. He does a little bit, but not what he originally promised. So we get the word from him this evening, and the European markets will respond first, and our futures will follow the bouncing averages. It really is a shame that this is the new world. we have to deal with it, but when dealing with more of the unknown it’s best not to get carried away with things. So a bit of exposure is fine, but a lot of exposure is just gambling. It’s all gambling, of course, but how much do you really want to risk is the question. Capital preservation seems best until we get more clarity, or at least until we get rid of all these central bankers and their interference. We’ll get more interference next week when we hear from our own Fed Yellen, but one fed annoyance at a time please. Tomorrow will be very interesting and likely quite volatile. Buckle up.

2009 S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY), and gap at 1920, really are the two key levels we’re dealing with short-term. 4.5% worth of room for both sides to try and drive us crazy. Back and forth we go with no clear winner, but those are really the only two important levels for the medium-term. Lots of meandering and meaningless noise in between and certainly that’s about all we get, with no one able to do anything special when they get the opportunity. Lots of hope then that hoe gets wiped out in the blink of an eye. Sustainability left the building sixteen months ago. Swings is all we get. They’re also hard to time since we don’t often get classic bottoming or topping sticks.

We often turn sides on sticks you wouldn’t think would do such a thing. Again, no follow through or sustainability. Just nonsense. We do have the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages at 1953 and 1951, respectively, but those moving averages haven’t really done much. The markets move through them with relative ease. Gap at 1918/1924 is the big area to watch. The problem with the noise in between is people are getting sucked in without realizing that nothing is happening. They think one day or two days of action are creating something to play off of, and then it simply reverses without warning, which again tells me to tell you to play lightly and without too much froth in your portfolio of trades. Hopefully tomorrow gives us some real insight. Watching those futures this evening as it moves along should be quite interesting.

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The banks need to lead. Banks like higher rates and stimulus. If the banks can’t get a strong bid ultimately the market won’t be able to break above 2009, and head to the next level of resistance at 2038, where we have a gap. If the banks gap down tomorrow and run lower the market could be in trouble, but then again, it can reverse back up without warning or seemingly any good reason. That’s what we’ve seen and may see yet again. One day at a time folks with our attention focused squarely on those financials tomorrow.