The Impact of the Employment Report for December

Tomorrow morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Employment Situation report for December. Depending upon your preferred source, the consensus estimate is for a gain of approximately 160,000 net new nonfarm jobs.



By Jeffrey Hirsch

This is quite a bit lower than the 202,000 that ADP reported yesterday. Historically, the market has responded less than sanguinely to the jobs report released in January.

S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY), NASDAQ(NYSEARCA:QQQ), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000(NYSEARCA:IWM) have all posted average losses on the day in the last twenty years. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both logged eleven losing years. DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA)and Russell 1000 have been up half the time while NASDAQ is the sole major index with more years up than down with an average loss of -0.12% but a median gain of 0.10%. Russell 2000 is the biggest loser down -0.34% on average and median.