March’s first trading day historically bullish
When it comes to first trading day of the month performance, March has a modestly bullish history.
Examining the last 21 years of data reveals DJIA and S&P 500 have the best record, advancing 66.7% of the time with average gains of 0.13% and 0.16%, respectively. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have posted better average gains, but with fewer winning days. After a rough patch from 2007 through 2011, March’s first trading day does appear to be improving. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have all recorded gains in four of the last five years. President Trump’s first speech before Congress Tuesday night is likely to influence March 1 trading this year. The rally has been running on broad proposed policy changes. Absent at least some details, the rally could falter.