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Market Has Bullish Bias the Week Before Election Week

The week before election week has a bullish bias that exceeds election week and the week after.

 

By Jeffrey Hirsch

Election Day is (finally) just around the corner. Next week will be two weeks before and it is also the week after October options expiration. Over the past 22 years the week leans bullish with gains exceeding losses by a margin of nearly 2 to 1 and respectable across the board gains. However, this same week (not always the week after options expiration) has nearly the exact opposite track record in election years. Since 1952, DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA) and S&P 500(NYSEARCA:SPY) have advanced during the week only 37.5% and 31.3% of the time respectively. The week before election week has a bullish bias that exceeds election week and the week after.