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November Begins the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and S*P 500

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ.

 

By Jeffery Hirsch

 

Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the number-three DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA) and number-two S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) month since 1950. Since 1971, November ranks second for NASDAQ(NYSEARCA:QQQ). November is number-one for Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 second best since 1979.

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions drive November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. The month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

In post-election years, November’s market prowess is relatively unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 13 of the last 16 post-election years since 1953 with an average gain of 1.8%. DJIA has been up 10-straight post-election year Novembers. S&P 500 has been up in 12 of the past 16 post-election years. Small caps perform well with Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) climbing in 7 of the past 9 post-election years, averaging 2.8%. The only real blemishes in the November post-election year record are 1969 (DJIA –5.1%) and 1973 (DJIA –14.0%, OPEC oil embargo).

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