Volatility begins to pick up
Exactly one week ago today, on July 26, the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) hit its lowest level ever in records dating back to 1990 at 8.84.
Since then the VIX has been quietly ticking higher and finished today at 10.30. A late July low by VIX is consistent with its historical seasonal pattern displayed above in the lower pane (shaded yellow box). If VIX tracts its historical pattern going forward then increasing volatility from now until sometime in October can be expected.