Will 2023 Be the Bottom of the Cycle?
When I last met with Richard Mogey years ago, past director of The Foundation for the Study of Cycles, the topic of sunspot cycles came up. Mogey was the first person who totally got it. He had been following these cycles for a long time and understood their impact on the business cycle and agriculture.
The Gravitational Pull
While we chatted, he said something interesting. He and his wife had determined what caused the substantial variances in that approximate 10-year cycle. It was the gravitational pull of the larger planets on the sun. We’re talking from Jupiter on out.
Gravity is of course a CORE principle in physics.
When doing my normal overview of scientists’ forecasts for when this current sunspot cycle is most likely to bottom, I found that the consensus was for December 2019 to early 2020. But there was one group that was forecasting late 2020, citing the “gravitational” factor.
That’s when I remembered that conversation with Richard… and I started favoring the forecasts of these “gravity” guys.
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Downside Cycle in 2023
I have recently done my own poking around. I found that down waves in the Sunspot Cycle have been increasing in length and as a percentage of the cycles after the last major peak in intensity in 1957. Ever since that year, sunspot cycles have peaked lower and taken longer to bottom.
I applied the average ratio of up and down waves since 1957. And the upside of this cycle into mid-2014 (at 4.4 years up) would project a downside cycle of 8.8 years and a bottom way out in mid-2023.
If that turns out to be the case, the traditional scientific experts would be far off in their forecast for the first time. And this scenario would correlate perfectly with my hierarchy of four primary cycles that suggests the worst for stocks between 2020 and 2022. And for the economy into 2023.
Here’s what the middle path would look like… (this is merely an intuitive correlation with the last cycle, which was the longest in history.)
My experience with much cycle analysis has taught me that the intuitive correlations tend to be better than the more analytical ones.
My Economic Forecast
This projection would say that the worst for stocks and the economy would hit between 2020 and 2021. That’s right in Trump’s re-election campaign – or just after if he wins. If I were running for president, I would rather lose due to a stock crash that I could blame on the Fed than get re-elected. And then get hammered and fully blamed for the next great depression!
Following this middle path, it also means that the economy could still be weak into 2022 or 2023, as my primary cycles continue to project.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the more extreme projection unfold, giving us a bottom in 2023. That would also be consistent with more lengthy bottoming processes in the last period of three low sunspot intensity cycles in the early 1800s. It’s called the “Dalton Minimum” where they stay at near zero for three to five years before turning up.
I’ll keep you updated. But I’m more confident betting against the traditional experts this time, although they are close to right most of the time. The falling intensity and lengthening of cycles here isn’t typical. And that’s where a cycle guy like me can see something the scientists don’t.